MAPA puts initial olive oil crop forecast at 1.6 Mt for the new 2026/27 season

The first estimates for olive oil production in Spain for the 2026/27 season, which began on Thursday 1 October, point to a harvest of 1,602,596 tonnes — a figure that can be considered a medium-to-high crop, as it is 23% up on the season just ended, according to the forecast figures reported by the regional governments to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

This advance olive oil production forecast was presented by the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Luis Planas, who stressed that "this first forecast reflects the weather conditions of the season" and that "it gives us a guarantee of supply and of stability in the domestic market and in our exports."

According to the Ministry, last spring's weather conditions in the main olive-growing areas, with mild temperatures and abundant rainfall, allowed good flowering and fruit set, and this is reflected in the forecast figures.

However, as the Regional Government of Andalusia also warned this week, MAPA points out that "these initial forecast figures are preliminary and may be adjusted at a later stage. The weather over the coming weeks, together with how the olives develop following the high summer temperatures, which have mainly affected rain-fed olive groves, will determine oil yields and therefore the final production that can be achieved."

By region, a significant increase of 29% is estimated for Andalusia, the leading producing region, with a total of 1,261,200 t which, if confirmed, would account for 79% of the national total. Jaén, the largest producing province, may reach 575,000 tonnes, or 36% of Spain's output.

After Andalusia, the estimate for Castilla-La Mancha, the second region in production terms, stands at 152,000 t, 10% above last season, followed in third place by Extremadura, where 97,300 t are forecast, also with a significant increase of 24%.

By contrast, MAPA's forecast points to a fall in production in Catalonia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, the Region of Madrid, the Region of Murcia and Navarre, as shown in the accompanying table.

MAPA's forecast is drawn up on the basis of the figures reported by the producing regions under Article 5 of Royal Decree 84/2021 of 9 February, which lays down the marketing standards for olive oil. Three regions (Castilla y León, Galicia and the Basque Country) did not report a forecast.

Further information at this LINK on the MAPA website.