Olive oil conquers the world as climate change closes in on its origins

The Olive Oil World Congress (OOWC), held on 2 and 3 July at the Centro Cultural de Belém, concluded its sessions with a clear diagnosis and conclusions that go beyond the usual technical debate: olive oil is a strategic asset whose future depends on four fronts — climate, technology, quality, and communication — that the sector can no longer continue to address separately.

The first and most urgent is climate. The Mediterranean region is warming at twice the global average, and projections point to a reduction of up to 44% in olive grove yields in southern Spain, alongside more pests, altered flowering, and increasingly early episodes of extreme heat. The response involves preserving genetic diversity — the GEN4OLIVE project has characterised more than 600 varieties and deposited material in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault — developing resistant varieties, and improving water and soil management. The survival of small and medium-sized farms, which sustain the Mediterranean landscape, remains the most urgent concern.

Technology that still does not reach everyone

Against this backdrop, digitalisation is emerging as a key lever: AI, drones, and sensors enable documented savings of 68% in irrigation water and 35% in plant protection products, while the olive mill of the future will be more connected and predictive. However, technology adoption remains the real bottleneck. Advanced tools are reaching small producers late, precisely when harvesting alone accounts for nearly half of production costs in traditional olive farming. Without training and new business models, technology alone is not enough.

Fraud, quality, and 40 years of the tasting panel

Producing more and better is pointless if the product reaching the market is not what it claims to be. Olive oil remains one of the foods most exposed to fraud: the most difficult threats to combat are mild deodorisation — which removes defects without leaving obvious analytical traces — and blends designed to evade controls. The Congress advocated harmonisation between the Codex Alimentarius and the IOC, the use of sterols as an authenticity fingerprint, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) as an emerging verification technique. The IOC’s decision trees also allow authentic oils that fall outside purity limits due to natural variation to be marketed without weakening fraud detection. In this context, the tasting panel — now celebrating its 40th anniversary — remains irreplaceable: 150 panels registered in 2026, with a presence in 27 countries. Its future lies in integration with electronic noses, AI, and biomarkers, as well as in addressing a pending challenge: teaching consumers to value bitterness and pungency as signs of quality rather than defects.

Scientific evidence, the sector’s greatest asset

Alongside quality, health is emerging as a powerful differentiator. The PREDIMED and CORDIOPREV trials confirm that every additional 25 grams of olive oil consumed per day reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease by 16%, the risk of diabetes by 22%, and all-cause mortality by 11%. Research is advancing into polyphenols — hydroxytyrosol, oleuropein, and oleocanthal — and their role in brain health and healthy ageing, while also opening the door to nutraceuticals derived from olive by-products.

Verified sustainability, not declared sustainability

Alongside health comes sustainability: not as a marketing argument, but as trust infrastructure. The 11 million hectares of olive groves act as carbon sinks; the IOC is developing a blockchain-backed carbon credit certification system; and the circular economy offers enormous potential: only 20% of the olive’s weight is converted into oil, while the remaining 80% can be transformed into energy, biofertilisers, and antioxidants. The biodiversity and ecosystem services of olive groves also have measurable economic value, while ESG and CSRD frameworks are turning verified sustainability into a condition for market access rather than an optional added value. The Congress also settled the broader debate: both traditional and intensive systems can be sustainable, provided they are properly managed.

From volume to value, and from production to storytelling

All this is taking place in a market that has continued to grow: global consumption has increased by 83% since the 1990s and now reaches 3.2 million tonnes, with the United States as the leading importer (35%) and growth of more than 400% in non-IOC markets such as Brazil, China, and Japan. But the Congress’s main conclusion was not a production figure: it was that consumers are no longer simply buying olive oil, but trust, authenticity, identity, and experience. There is no universal formula — every market, culture, and generation requires different messages and channels — and social media is now essential for younger consumers. Origin storytelling and olive oil tourism turn visitors into ambassadors. Today’s children will be tomorrow’s consumers.

The Congress received institutional support from the International Olive Council (IOC), CIHEAM Zaragoza, and the Mediterranean Diet Foundation, together with public bodies such as Portugal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Maritime Affairs, the Castilla-La Mancha Regional Government («Campo y Alma»), the Government of Catalonia, the Andalusian Regional Government, and IMIDRA.

In the private sector, this second edition is currently supported, in addition to Olivum, by organisations including AgroBank, BPI of the CaixaBank Group, the Spanish Olive Oil Interprofessional Organisation, GEA Group, Novonesis-Univar Solutions, APOAC (Associação para a Promoção do Olival e Azeite de Aire e Candeeiros), with its commercial brand «Olivedos do Carso», Adsaica (Associação de Desenvolvimento das Serras de Aire e Candeeiros), Feria de Zaragoza (ENOMAQ), Kubota, Dazeite, and Siliker.