Kennedy Shakes Up the Board and Spain Sharpens Its Strategy

Juan Vilar, CEO & Founder, Juan Vilar Consultores Estratégicos

A hard turn from the planet’s leading power could change the recent history of olive oil. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., U.S. Secretary of Health, has brought a blunt message to the fore: seed oils are the “intimate enemy” of the American diet and should give ground to olive oil.

The political and media echo is no small matter: we’re talking about the world’s third-largest consumer market for olive oil—after Italy and Spain—already using around 390,000 tons a year and producing barely 15,000 t (just 3.8% of its needs), with California as virtually the only domestic engine and a structural dependence on imports.

The cultural shift was already underway—more Mediterranean cooking at home, greater attention to cardiometabolic health, more clean labels—but now it’s getting institutional fuel. If that message translates into incentives, campaigns, and reforms in foodservice and the food industry, the United States could trigger the largest demand jump in the sector’s history and, for the first time, become the world’s top olive oil consumer.

The question isn’t whether U.S. consumption will grow, but how much and how fast. With 330 million people and solid purchasing power, the potential is enormous.

The current structure of the U.S. market shows a growing dependence on imports: even now, the United States needs to purchase abroad about 375,000 tons of olive oil to meet domestic demand. If consumption were to accelerate to 750,000 tons, the import gap would widen considerably, surpassing 735,000 tons—a figure that would cement the country as the world’s leading importer of this product.

In this context, Spain stands out as the big winner. Its export leadership, along with its reputation for quality and diversity of origins, positions it to capitalize on this momentum, strengthening its presence in retail, hospitality, and the food industry.

A side effect of this demand surge would be upward pressure on international prices, especially in short campaigns or low-production seasons within the European Union. The market would tend to maintain high ex-mill price levels, driven by robust U.S. demand and competition for supply.

However, the most relevant risks lie in pressure on global availability, the possible displacement of domestic consumption in producer countries if prices return to high levels, and the need to safeguard quality and food safety in a context of rapid expansion—where traceability and control will be decisive to maintain consumer confidence and market stability.

If the U.S. accelerates to 750,000 t, exports to the U.S. could evolve as follows:

• Spain: from 145,000 t to 250,000 t (+70%)
• Italy: from 90,000 t to 130,000 t
• Greece: from 30,000 t to 50,000 t
• Portugal: from 15,000 t to 25,000 t

Kennedy’s political push could become the catalyst olive oil needed to conquer the world’s largest economy. If the U.S. moves toward 750,000 tons, the center of gravity of global consumption will shift—and Spain, prepared and coordinated, can lead that leap. The challenge is no small one: ensure stable supply, lock in quality, tell the story well… and go win.

An article by Juan Vilar, CEO & Founder of Juan Vilar Consultores Estratégicos, published at https://www.juanvilar.com/kennedy-agita-el-tablero-y-espana-afila-la-estrategia/