Over recent years, olive oil has gone through one of the most complex periods in its recent history. Prolonged droughts, poor harvests, and a market under intense pressure pushed prices to record highs and placed the sector at the center of public debate. The 2025 Annual Market Outlook Report now shows a clear change in scenario: the 2024/2025 season marks the beginning of a phase of normalization, with more oil available, a less strained market, and a horizon that invites thinking in terms of opportunities rather than urgencies.
This annual analysis is prepared by the Caja Rural de Jaén Chair “José Luis García-Lomas Hernández,” a university team specializing in olive oil economics and marketing, and is directed by Manuel Parras Rosa. The document is presented as a tool to understand the sector’s evolution, but also as a technical stance on the issues that most influence the olive oil market.
From shortage to rebalancing
After two seasons marked by scarcity, the recovery in production has been one of the decisive factors shaping this new context. The increase in supply has made it possible to guarantee availability, reduce uncertainty, and correct prices that had become difficult to sustain for both consumers and many operators along the value chain.
The report offers an important interpretation: the drop in prices is not merely a correction, but a return to levels more compatible with consumption and market stability. Rather than speaking of crisis, the document suggests viewing this moment as a necessary adjustment following an exceptional period.
A consumer who can return
One of the major challenges left by the previous stage is consumption. The rise in olive oil prices led to changes in purchasing habits, substitution with other oils, and a loss of presence in some households. With the new scenario of more accessible prices, the sector now has a strategic opportunity to reconnect with consumers.
And the challenge is significant: it is not only about selling more liters, but about rebuilding trust and habits, and reinforcing the idea that olive oil—especially in its higher-quality categories—is not an occasional luxury, but a central food of the Mediterranean diet and culture.
Less improvisation, more coordination
Another key axis of the analysis is the organization of the sector itself. The document stresses that recent volatility cannot be explained solely by weather or production levels, but also by how expectations are managed and by the degree of coordination among operators. The message is clear: in such a sensitive market, planning and transparency matter almost as much as harvests.
The current situation is therefore presented as an opportunity to move toward a more professionalized model: better market analysis, less reactive decision-making, and a more orderly functioning of the chain, from the olive grove to the supermarket shelf.
Beyond price: value as a strategy
The report does not limit itself to the short term. Much of its content looks to the future and places on the table the major debates that will shape the evolution of the olive oil sector in the coming years. These include the role of olive growing within the new CAP, the growing importance of organic olive farming, the need to modernize farms to improve efficiency and resilience, and the importance of creating value at origin.
Here, quality and differentiation emerge as decisive tools: quality schemes, reputation, traceability, and positioning in markets that value the product for what it is—and not solely for its price.
An international context that also matters
The report reminds us that the olive oil sector does not operate in isolation. The evolution of foreign trade, the growth of competitors, and changes in international demand directly affect internal balance. Having a more stable supply and a less strained market improves Spain’s ability to consolidate clients and defend its role as a key player on the global olive oil stage.
Opportunity, not complacency
Overall, the 2025 Annual Market Outlook Report conveys an idea that is easy to summarize: the sector can breathe again, but it must not relax. The 2024/2025 season opens a stage with greater room for maneuver, but also with new challenges. Recovering consumption, organizing the market, and moving toward a more balanced model will depend on how this moment is used.
Olive oil leaves urgency behind and enters a phase in which the key is no longer survival, but building the future: more stability, more strategy, and more value.
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