'Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the olive oil sector'

Jaime Lillo, Executive Director of the IOC

The IOC is reviewing global olive oil quality and trade standards. What specific changes are expected, and how will they affect producers, marketers, and consumers?

One of the main objectives of the IOC is the harmonization of international and national standards in order to improve the quality of olive products, promote fair trade, prevent possible fraud, and protect consumers. To this end, the IOC actively participates as an intergovernmental observer in the committees of Codex, ISO, the EU, and others.

The IOC is the reference body for the standardization of olive products and is responsible for administering the United Nations International Agreement on Olive Oil and Table Olives. IOC standards are international trade standards developed scientifically and by consensus, through the study, analysis, and validation of testing methods and the establishment of limits for each parameter. They are based on objective scientific data, developed in collaboration with leading international experts, and seek consensus among countries.

The IOC continuously and rigorously reviews and updates the standards for olive oils and table olives, taking into account scientific and technological advances, as well as climate change and any factors that may influence or alter the composition, quality, and authenticity characteristics of the product. Any change is always based on the results of studies, scientific research, and objective data, analyzing the factors that may affect each harvest, ensuring that variations are not occasional but sustained over time. Each revision is carried out based on information provided by member countries (questionnaires, studies, samples, and scientific data), which is discussed in specialized expert groups. Decisions on revising standards are made by consensus to safeguard the quality and authenticity of olive oils, harmonize standards to promote international trade, prevent fraudulent practices, and protect consumers.

Climate change is one of the sector’s greatest challenges. What initiatives is the IOC promoting to support olive grove adaptation and ensure future sustainability?

The IOC is promoting various initiatives to support the adaptation of olive growing to climate change and to ensure future sustainability. In particular, it is working on developing an international methodology to calculate the carbon balance in olive groves, in order to demonstrate the role of this crop as a carbon sink. It maintains and coordinates an international network of olive germplasm banks to conserve and make available to the scientific community and the sector the genetic resources of olive trees.

It has created the World Olive Encyclopaedia and an interactive variety catalogue, accessible on the IOC’s website, which brings together scientific and technical information on varietal diversity. It promotes technical cooperation, research, and technology transfer, including specialized courses on the use of by-products and the efficient use of resources such as water. It also promotes the training of experts and the exchange of knowledge among member countries.

The IOC runs promotional campaigns in key markets such as the U.S. and China. What is the strategy to increase consumption in these countries, and what results are being achieved?

The IOC’s promotional campaigns aim primarily to strengthen relations with national institutions and industry stakeholders, disseminate IOC standards, highlight the authenticity of olive oil, and emphasize its health benefits. In recent years, the IOC has carried out promotional campaigns in the U.S., China, Japan, Australia, and, since last year, in Brazil. The strategies followed in these countries have their own specific characteristics:

In the U.S. context, olive oil enjoys a high level of recognition and is integrated into the cultural practices of a large segment of the population. Consequently, communication strategies in this market focus on emphasizing its health properties and culinary versatility, linking it directly with the Mediterranean lifestyle. In this sense, the IOC has promoted initiatives to communicate the scientific benefits of olive oil in an accessible way to consumers. In 2018, it launched the “Olive Oil Promise” campaign, designed to translate health research findings into clear and useful messages, helping consumers understand terms such as “extra virgin” or “polyphenols.” The earlier “Add Some Life” campaign, launched in 2011, had a similar purpose.

In terms of results, the United States has shown a clear upward trend in olive oil imports, consolidating its position as the leading non-European market. In the 2018/19 crop year, U.S. imports rose from approximately 322,199 tons in 2017/18 to 356,183 tons, an increase of 10.5%. The data show a sustained increase in olive oil imports into the U.S. market over recent years.

The approach to the Chinese market is different, as olive oil is not part of the local culinary tradition. Therefore, campaigns must focus more on introducing the product, preventing fraud, explaining how to incorporate it into daily diets, and positioning it as a healthy, modern, and prestigious product. The IOC’s strategy in China focuses on establishing institutional links to raise awareness of IOC standards and promote their implementation. It also aims to strengthen quality control infrastructure. To this end, it supports the creation of IOC-recognized physicochemical laboratories and tasting panels to guarantee the authenticity of oils and promote the adoption of IOC standards.

It is worth noting that, at the beginning of the 2019/20 campaign, China imported 55,580 tons of olive oil and olive pomace oil, representing an increase of 13.5% compared to the previous year. Overall, consumption in China has grown from 12,000 tons in 2008/09 to 57,500 tons in 2021/22.

The 2024–2025 campaign shows strong growth in Spain, Greece, and Turkey, compared with a decline in Italy. How does the IOC interpret this production rebalancing, and what will be its consequences for international trade?

The heatwave of summer 2022 affected the main producing countries of the Mediterranean region. Production fell significantly in the 2022/23 campaign: Spain (-55%), Morocco (-44%), Portugal (-39%), Italy (-27%), Tunisia (-10%), and Algeria (-20%). Meanwhile, no heatwaves affected the eastern Mediterranean countries such as Greece (+49%) or Turkey (+92%), where production was higher. Globally, the estimated decline in production for 2022/23 was around 19%. Interestingly, the highest production ever recorded occurred in the previous 2021/22 campaign, with 3,416,000 tons. The 2023/24 campaign also saw a 6% drop compared with 2022/23.

The data indicate that we are facing a complex situation as a consequence of climate change, of which the IOC is fully aware. The sector is addressing these challenges through the establishment of new plantations and the restoration of existing ones. The use of new high-density plantations with greater tree density per hectare is also increasing production. Additionally, the olive-growing sector is working with grafts and more efficient irrigation systems, improving mechanization and overall dynamism.

Preliminary data for the 2024/25 campaign indicate that Spain will reach a production of 1,415,000 tons (+66%), Turkey 505,000 tons (+135%), Greece 248,000 tons (+29%), and Italy 250,000 tons (-24%).

In 2024/25, Turkey accounted for 14% of global production, well above the ten-year average of 8% (261,000 t). Spain’s share was 40%, compared with a 41% average (1,268,000 t). Italy reached 7%, nearly three points below its average (10%, 305,000 t), while Greece also stood at 7%, compared with an 8% average (261,000 t). Turkey thus achieved a historic production record in 2024/25, with 505,000 tons, after already reaching a record figure in 2022/23 (451,000 t), both well above its ten-year average (261,000 t). These figures highlight Turkey’s productive potential and strong growth capacity demonstrated in recent years.

In Italy’s case, as in other countries, production trends have been affected by climate. Moreover, Italian olive trees have been particularly hit by the Xylella fastidiosa disease. Italy is an exporting country but a net importer that needs to import olive oil to maintain supply.

Regarding international trade, Spain, Greece, Italy, and Turkey share the U.S. market as their main trading partner. Imports from Italy are mainly bottled, meaning that Spain, Greece, and Turkey compete in this market. Higher olive oil production lowers prices at origin, which in turn affects export prices.

From the IOC’s perspective, what are the three priorities that will shape the future of olive oil over the next ten years?

The great challenge we face is how to feed a rapidly growing global population sustainably. From the IOC’s perspective, the future of olive oil over the next decade will be shaped by three major priorities guiding our actions:

Environmental sustainability and adaptation to climate change, through initiatives focused on carbon balance, efficient management of natural resources, and the use of by-products.
Quality, authenticity, and transparency, by strengthening international trade standards, scientific research, and the training of experts in tasting and quality control.
Promotion and responsible consumption on a global scale, supported by the dissemination of olive oil’s health benefits, the valorization of its cultural and gastronomic heritage, and the opening of new markets to ensure balanced and sustainable sector growth.