How did the olive oil market perform in the first two quarters of the 2024/25 season?

With the last four months of the current 2024/25 campaign still to be accounted for, the market has already absorbed one million tons of olive oil, according to data from the Olive Oil Market Information System (SIMO).

Specifically, 1,000,900 tons of olive oil were absorbed by the market up to the eighth month of the season. Of this total, 62.73%—or 627,900 tons—was exported, representing a 23% increase compared to the same period of the previous season and 1% more than the average (622,500 t) of the last four campaigns.

This confirms the upward trend in exports, which have already surpassed the four-year average—especially during the first five months of the campaign—with a peak of 91,000 tons exported in May alone.

The remaining 37.27%, or 373,000 tons, were used to meet domestic consumption, which is 35% higher than a year ago (276,000 t) and 14% above the four-year average (327,000 t).

This reflects a solid recovery of the domestic market, with volumes above both the previous season and the average since December—when 55,000 tons were sold, the campaign’s peak—thanks to the sharp drop in both farm-gate and retail prices.

The monthly average of olive oil leaving the market since the start of the campaign stands at 125,100 tons—27% or 26,800 tons more per month than in the same period of the 2023/24 campaign, which averaged just 98,300 tons due to tight supply and soaring prices. It is also 5% higher than the previous four-year average (118,700 t).

If this monthly pace continues over the remaining four months of the campaign, total market absorption could exceed 1.5 million tons, thus surpassing the total 2024/25 production.

Supply

At the start of the 2024/25 campaign, initial stocks were only 186,900 tons—25% lower than the previous year and 54% below the four-year average.

Added to this is a campaign production of 1,414,100 tons—65% (558,500 t) higher than the same period of 2023/24 and 28% above the four-year average (1,101,100 t)—after adding 200 more tons in May. This figure can now be considered practically final, pending minimal adjustments.

Imports during the first two quarters of the campaign reached 162,600 tons—8% above the four-year average (151,300 t) but 6% (11,000 t) below the previous campaign.

Altogether, this gives a total olive oil supply for the current campaign of 1,763,700 tons—38% (486,300 t) higher than the same period last season and 6% above the four-year average (1,656,800 t).

As of May 31, olive oil stocks stood at 762,800 tons, which is 55% (271,500 t) more than the same date last year and 8% (55,500 t) above the four-year average (707,300 t).

Of this volume:

555,100 t were held by mills (110,700 t less than at the end of April)
200,600 t by bottlers and other operators (6,300 t less)
7,100 t by the Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero (2,700 t less)

Prices

Average farm-gate prices across the different olive oil categories have continued to fall, now sitting below €4/kg.

In week 25 (June 16–22), prices still saw slight declines compared to the previous week:

Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO): €357.97/100 kg (↓0.41%)
Virgin olive oil (VOO): €304.88/100 kg (↓0.24%)
Lampante oil: €280.36/100 kg (↓0.85%)
Refined olive oil: €304.32/100 kg (↓2.06%)
Compared to the start of the campaign (October 1, 2024), the price drops are significant—over 50%:

EVOO: -51.62%
VOO: -56.41%
Lampante: -58.22%
Refined: -53.68%
Versus the same week (25) of the previous campaign, price drops are even more severe, all above 50%:

EVOO: -55.5%
VOO: -58.96%
Lampante: -60.31%
Refined: -58.26%
Compared to the four-year average, mid-June prices are also markedly lower:

EVOO: -32.33%
VOO: -38.63%
Lampante: -41.19%
Refined: -37.24%
From the producers’ perspective, current prices are already too low—especially for traditional dry-farmed groves with lower oil yields—and fall below production costs, which average over €4/kg.

They argue that prices no longer reflect expectations for the 2025/26 olive harvest, which some sources predict could be even lower than the current one due to heatwaves, alternate bearing, and pest infestations in key production zones