According to the latest data published by the European Commission, based on information reported by the Member States as of March 31, a reduction in Spanish production to 1,295,000 tonnes is confirmed, along with a decrease in final stocks, estimated at 259,600 tonnes.
Italy, for its part, maintains an estimated production of 325,000 tonnes, well below its domestic consumption, which amounts to 460,000 tonnes (an average of 38,330 tonnes per month). This situation will force the country to rely on imports mainly from Spain to meet its commercial needs and reach the level of final stocks set by its administration, fixed at 125,000 tonnes.
Overall, the European Commission estimates domestic consumption in producing countries at 1,245,495 tonnes, suggesting that total consumption in the European Union will exceed the initial forecast of 1,442,000 tonnes, and may even surpass the levels of the previous marketing year.
The strong pace at which olive oil has been released onto the market during this campaign, particularly over the last two months, combined with more moderate import forecasts following the normalization of initial pressure from Tunisia, points to a very tight end to the campaign in terms of availability.
In this context, Spain is consolidating its position as the main and practically the only supplier to the EU market in the final months of the campaign, when it is necessary to guarantee supply until the arrival of the new harvest.
Under this scenario, the situation reinforces Spain’s strategic role as a guarantor of supply, with the capacity to meet both EU and international demand, ensuring market stability and the commercialization of available olive oil until the new oils enter the market from December 2026 onward.
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